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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|